(Actual sample from Tuesday, January 8, 2008)
Corn futures are called 4 to 5 higher on the open. Corn at the Dalian was up a 0.01 at 6.41. E-cbot was 4 ¼ to 5 ¼ better. Turnaround Tuesday trade could result as traders move to put a weather premium into the market over Argentinean corn crop concern. Bears are looking at lower outside markets to pull corn lower (ethanol contracts were lower overnight) but index fund reallocation (which should favor corn) is receiving all the press.
Soybean futures are called 7 to 9 higher on the open. Bean futures were lower at the Dalian but 7 ¾ to 20 higher on the overnight e-cbot. Turnaround Tuesday type buying may be a feature but a good amount of speculative liquidation due to index fund reallocation worries could thwart any bean rally. Crude oil is trading higher this morning which is supportive to a higher open.
Wheat futures are called 2 to 4 lower on the opening. Wheat was ¼ to 3 lower on the e-cbot overnight. Specs are bearish wheat as they suspect index funds will be reallocating out of wheat (and beans, too) and into other commodities when rolls begin, as early as today. Buoying the contract continues to be tight global stocks and increased U.S. exports – weekly inspections yesterday were 17.7 mbu with cumulative shipments at 802 mbu, 300 mbu larger than a year ago, ytd.
Live cattle are called mixed - .10 lower to .10 higher. Box prices were higher yesterday, with live equivalent +.63. Cash should not trade until later in the week with cash calls steady to 1 lower. Showlists were mixed depending on the area and fractionally lower overall after strong sales last week. You will see most bids as token bids through midweek.
Cotton is called .05 to .10 better. Chinese demand for cotton remains strong as USDA is seen as cutting Pakistani production numbers and increasing Chinese consumption numbers in Friday’s WASDE report. Crude oil is higher this morning, with most grains following, giving cotton outside support. Funds continue to buy cotton as they liquidate wheat and beans during index fund reallocation period. Spec interest still bullish cotton.